As a decade comes to a close (2010’s) it seems a good time to reflect and also predict what will come in the next ten years. Below are a set of my predictions for then.
I enjoy tracking my predictions and accuracy (even keeping an account on predictionbook.com). By tracking predictions it’s possible to see (and correct) how over / under confident I am.
I make the predictions below with much the same goal in mind, acssessing how well I understand the world. I even added the estimated year(s) of occurrence.
- China will fall to internal strife of some kind. Still may maintain power, but famine and mass executions / disappearances will occur. (2021 – 2025)
- Solar will account for 12k Gw of power in the United States (2030)
- The United States will produce 50% of the worlds nuclear power
- Gas will [continue to] be the dominate power source for mobile transportation (2030)
- Mexico will have an armed intervention by the United States (2024)
- California housing market will collapse due to high electricity prices (lack of electricity and wildfires) (2023)
- Wild caught fish will not be easily found in super markets (2028)
- Self driving vehicles will operate in many of the non-heavily effected weather states (2025)
- Laws will be passed to regulate self-driving vehicles and exclude them in some states after fatalities (2024 – 2030)
- Vehicles will have their first “virus” disabling / damaging them
- Marijuana will be legal federally (2024)
- Government will start accessing Alexa, Google, Siri recordings and public will be made aware (2022)
- China will start using / building power projection in states it can, specifically to protect food chain, likely in Africa (2023)
- AMD will surpass Intel in desktop CPU market share (2024)
- Brexit will occur (2020)
- Scotland will have protests to leave the UK and the UK will not allow a vote of independence (2020-2024)
- Ireland will vote to reunify (2023)
- Iraq will essentially become a client state of Iran (2021)
- Saudi Arabia and Iran will go to war (2023)
- Saudi Arabia will have a violent revolution (2025)
- SpaceX lands a rocket on the Moon (2024)
- SpaceX lands a rocket (or probe) on Mars (2028)
- Moon station is established with a multi-week stay by astronauts (2030)
Those twenty predictions may seem rather dark, but that’s the decade I fear we face! I hope I’m wrong about 90% of my predictions, but I’m between 50% to 90% confident on each of the points above… which you can see from my prediction book stats are fairly good…
Have a happy 2020’s!