Predictions for 2030

As a decade comes to a close (2010’s) it seems a good time to reflect and also predict what will come in the next ten years. Below are a set of my predictions for then.

I enjoy tracking my predictions and accuracy (even keeping an account on predictionbook.com). By tracking predictions it’s possible to see (and correct) how over / under confident I am.

I make the predictions below with much the same goal in mind, acssessing how well I understand the world. I even added the estimated year(s) of occurrence.

  1. China will fall to internal strife of some kind. Still may maintain power, but famine and mass executions / disappearances will occur. (2021 – 2025)
  2. Solar will account for 12k Gw of power in the United States (2030)
  3. The United States will produce 50% of the worlds nuclear power
  4. Gas will [continue to] be the dominate power source for mobile transportation (2030)
  5. Mexico will have an armed intervention by the United States (2024)
  6. California housing market will collapse due to high electricity prices (lack of electricity and wildfires) (2023)
  7. Wild caught fish will not be easily found in super markets (2028)
  8. Self driving vehicles will operate in many of the non-heavily effected weather states (2025)
  9. Laws will be passed to regulate self-driving vehicles and exclude them in some states after fatalities (2024 – 2030)
  10. ¬†Vehicles will have their first “virus” disabling / damaging them
  11. Marijuana will be legal federally (2024)
  12. Government will start accessing Alexa, Google, Siri recordings and public will be made aware (2022)
  13. China will start using / building power projection in states it can, specifically to protect food chain, likely in Africa (2023)
  14. AMD will surpass Intel in desktop CPU market share (2024)
  15. Brexit will occur (2020)
  16. Scotland will have protests to leave the UK and the UK will not allow a vote of independence (2020-2024)
  17. Ireland will vote to reunify (2023)
  18. Iraq will essentially become a client state of Iran (2021)
  19. Saudi Arabia and Iran will go to war (2023)
  20. Saudi Arabia will have a violent revolution (2025)
  21. SpaceX lands a rocket on the Moon (2024)
  22. SpaceX lands a rocket (or probe) on Mars (2028)
  23. Moon station is established with a multi-week stay by astronauts (2030)

Those twenty predictions may seem rather dark, but that’s the decade I fear we face! I hope I’m wrong about 90% of my predictions, but I’m between 50% to 90% confident on each of the points above… which you can see from my prediction book stats are fairly good…

Have a happy 2020’s!

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