Round 2 of Lock-downs Imminent

Unfortunately, we’re at the precipice of another lock-down in the United States, particularly for southern United States. This seemed like an obvious way it would go after all the states opened quickly, there were protests & riots. All the current states appear to have opened sooner and mostly have a lot of heat. Arguably the virus spreads easier in air conditioning and people remove masks in hot weather.

In any case, the surge indicates that:

  1. Another lock-down will be necessary to keep the virus from overwhelming states
  2. States that weren’t overwhelmed will now recognize it’s likely to have a 2nd wave

Then what happens?

  1. Companies will immediately start cutting deep (laying people off, cutting leases, etc.)
  2. Stock prices will plummet
  3. Unemployment will rise
  4. Fed will run out of options to keep the stock market up (dollar could be fine, unless they over-reach)
  5. Stimulus checks round 2 will take place
  6. Quite possibly large riots against lock-downs & government
  7. GDP drops 15% for the year

Essentially, everything predicted in my prior post: “Prepare for Round 2 of Lockdowns” (same time frame – June 26 is when it’ll be obvious).

Cases on The Rise

Exponential growth is upon us! Many are not wearing masks, daycare’s and schools are opening and people are going indoors to escape the heat! It’s a perfect storm.

Florida

At this point, Florida is pretty much screwed.

The cases in Florida are effectively up 300% from 10 days ago and testing capacity has been roughly constant in that time. Deaths will likely follow in 4-6 weeks and at this point there is still no end in sight. Florida has not decided to lock-down further yet, but eventually they will. Either enough people will saturate the hospitals that people start dying in the street(s) and people self impose a lock-down OR the government declares another lock-down. My bet, both will happen. The governor will declare another “lock-down” July 5-10 and the deaths will start rolling in at the same time.

Texas

Texas is equally in dire straights. In Houston, ICU’s are currently nearing capacity (~90%) with 30% of the ICU beds being used for COVID patients

The real kicker, is that this number should double or triple in the coming 3-5 weeks.  The number of cases just started growing exponentially:

It does appear that in this case, testing is also growing at the same time. That being said, the “positive test rate” has continued to rise implying a very rapid spread of COVID-19.

California & Georgia

California and Georgia, both states have the distinction of “opening” after never seeing cases decrease. In Californians case, positive COVID-19 tests have only ever grown.

Similarly, Georgia has always had either stagnant or grown COVID-19 positive tests. In recent days, testing capacity has increased, but the number of positives tests has still been growing faster (I.e. the ratio of positive tests are increasing).

In both cases, states are seeing positive cases increase at the same time the ratio of positive tests is increasing. This implies that the virus is growing faster than the testing capacity.

Surge in Cases

This is a large surge in cases, a large percentage of the population is on the verge of being infected and the doubling rate seems to be 3 – 6 days at the moment. Remember, deaths will be just a few weeks behind. Whether it be by death or “lock-down” we’re facing a massive economic burden. We’re really in for a perfect storm.

— Good luck.

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