An Analysis on Rumble NASDAQ: CFVI

Recently, the video hosting platform Rumble gave notice that it was merging through Cantor Fitzgerald’s CF Acquisition Corp (NASDAQ: CFVI) (a SPAC).

The main value proposition appears to be an uncensored video platform. The Rumble platform appears to be targeting a few different markets.

As such, I thought it would be good to do a light analysis.

NOTE: This is not financial advice, I do now hold shares in CFVI (spoiler alert!).

Target Markets

Unique Value Proposition

  • Pro-free speech and opposed to censorship, incorporating on those grounds

  • Opposed to demonetization

  • Data will be owned by the users (as opposed to say, YouTube), particularly for Locals.com

  • Stated intent to provide infrastructure and tools

In multiple interviews the CEO has stated they intend to have the community & prominent 1st amendment attorney’s build a Terms of Service and Community Guidelines. Locals already provides legal ownership of all data to the creators.

Investors & Future Collaborations

They also appear to have gained some critical investors such as Peter Thiel. Recent news also indicated they’d be supporting Donald Trumps new social network.

Long-form Interviews with CEO Chris Pavlovski:

The Statistics

Rumble Statistics

From Rumble (December 2022 SPAC merger announcement):

  • Tremendous growth from 1.6 million average monthly active users in Q3 2020 to a record 36 million average monthly active users in Q3 2021

  • 44 million monthly active users in August 2021

  • Viewer engagement grew 44x from Q2 2020 to Q3 2021 to 8 billion minutes watched per month[1

  • Transaction is expected to provide approximately $400 million in proceeds[2] to Rumble, including a fully committed PIPE of $100 million at $10.00 per share and $300 million of cash held in the trust account of CFVI

  • Transaction values Rumble at an enterprise value of $2.1 billion[3]

  • Rumble Founder and Chief Executive Officer to retain voting control to facilitate execution of Rumble‚Äôs neutral mission on behalf of all stakeholders

  • Locals.com has subscribers per community.

    • Example: pay $20/month for community X and $5/month for community Y

During Tim Pool podcast (January 2022):

  • 35 million views per month

  • Est 525 million minutes watched per month

For comparison, see YouTube below…

YouTube Statistics

From various websites[1][2]:

  • Claim: Est >1.8 trillion minutes watched per month

  • Claimed 1B hrs viewed per day (60 minutes * 30 days -> 1800B minutes / month)

  • 81% of adults in the US use YouTube.

  • In 2020, YouTube Premium hit 30 million subscribers. ($11.99/month)

  • YouTube had a 49% growth rate in the first quarter of 2021.

  • 70% of watch time on YouTube comes from smartphones and tablets.

  • Globally, YouTube has around 2.24 billion users.

  • 23% of adults in the US regularly use YouTube as a news source.

  • 51% of YouTube users visit the site daily.

  • YouTube creators upload approximately 30,000 hours of video per hour.

  • The average YouTuber makes around $18 per 1,000 views.

  • The most viewed video on YouTube has more than 9 billion views.

  • YouTube ad revenue per view is between $0.05 and $0.10.

Direct Comparison

  • YouTube appears to be worth / valued somewhere between $100 and $200B [3]

  • YouTube appears to have $360+m revenue / month from 30 million subscribers

  • Rumble valuation appears to be $2.1B

  • That places Rumble at about 1-2% the value of YouTube.

  • Rumble viewership is 0.02% of YouTube

  • Locals.com appears to have at least several million subscribers to communities. Unclear how much revenue is coming from this currently.

Conclusions

It appears Rumble is targeting free-speech advocates, conservatives, gamers, comedians, conspiracy theorists, anti-vaccine groups, etc. YouTube appears to be targeting those same groups and purging them.

At least 100 million Americans fall into those groups. As the election season heats up, I have a sneaking suspicion that Rumble may be one of the only places where those Americans can view content they want. This would further drive growth.

YouTube appears to be worth / valued somewhere between $100 and $200B [3]. That places Rumble at about 1% the value of YouTube. Rumble viewership is 0.02% of Youtube.

Rumble is also suing Google for billions for altering search results.

It seems like a decent opportunity, given:

  • Upcoming election cycle

  • Trumps draw (he had tens of millions of twitter followers)

  • Improved terms on Rumble (they are better than YouTube for creators)

  • Thiel’s investment history

  • Locals seems to be growing and have a good revenue stream

  • Focusing on free-speech and collaborating with community will build trust

  • YouTube & Paetron is almost directly sending customers to Rumble & Locals

One thought on “An Analysis on Rumble NASDAQ: CFVI

  1. I appreciate the analysis. There are going to be many opportunities as “alt-tech” continues to grow, we’ve already seen tremendous growth in this area.

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