Predictions for 2022

At the beginning of 2020, I wrote a series of predictions for 2030.

There was only one prediction for 2021 and that was the following:

Iraq will essentially become a client state of Iran (2021)

While that did not occur, they have began a joint rail way system and Iraq’s last elections were challenged by the Iranian faction within the country. I strongly suspect we’re still closing in on this event within the next three years; particularly, with the Afghanistan withdrawal. My hunch is this will lead to a direct war between Saudi Arabia and Iran sometime between the years 2023 and 2025.

Recap for 2021

Given the absolute crazy ride of 2021 in the United States, I wanted to highlight what I view as the five most pivotal singular events:

(#1) Stolen Fortified United States Election was Confirmed by Congress

(#2) Right-Wing Coup Attempt or Left-Wing Successful Coup (including sitting president of the U.S. banned from communicating with constituents)

Election Protestor Standing in Capital Building

(#3) President Inaugurated Behind Barbed Wire

Inauguration, behind barbed wire and armed national guard Photo – Photo from CBS

(#4) Fall of Afghanistan and Ceding the Territory to China

Afghani’s falling from an airplane, trying to hold on as Kabul is taken by the Taliban

(#5) Vaccine Mandates – New York Rolls Out Vaccine Passports

Mother and Son commanded to leave restaurant by the NYPD – Tweet

Why those events? If you put them together, it becomes rather clear the United States is on a downward spiral.

  1. The majority of country believes the elections were stolen. In response both sides attempted a “mostly peaceful” grab at power.
  2. The side which “won” now occupies the capital of the United States, with force
  3. The current ruling party of the United States just gave a massive strategic win to the United States greatest adversary
  4. The current ruling party is now solidifying power. Purging the military of the “right-wing” and “anti-vaxx“, locking down major cities by pushing out those opposing vaccines (49% right-wing vs 29% left-wing), etc. Currently, 30+% of the country cannot visit its largest cities.

There are other events: inflation (likely closer to 20%), “GameStop Rebellion“, China-Iran-Russia Alliance, etc. However, I would argue the most pressing threat is the consolidation of power and clear danger within United States. The United States appears on the cusp of dissolving.

Prior Predictions for 2022

Finally, it’s been two years since 2020 and a lot has happened, let’s review my prior prediction for 2022:

Government will start accessing Alexa, Google, Siri recordings and public will be made aware (2022)

I maintain that’ll likely happen. Frankly, I believe it may have already happened, as Apple is openly scanning photos (and video): In internal memo, Apple addresses concerns around new Photo scanning features  (Hacker News)

It also appears China is looking at projecting power into the Atlantic: China Seeks First Military Base on Africa’s Atlantic Coast, U.S. Intelligence Finds, which is almost exactly inline with my 2023 prediction.

China will start using / building power projection in states it can, specifically to protect food chain, likely in Africa (2023)

I’d argue China effectively taking over Afghanistan was a similar effort ensuring resources and access to oil from Iran[1][2].

New Predictions for 2022

Given the trends, here are my predictions for 2022:

  • ✅ – Apr 29 – Food prices rise 50% over 2019 rate by the end of 2022
  • ??? – Sep 9 (kinda) – Price controls are implemented
  • ✅ – Feb 10 – Vaccine mandates spread to multiple states including: IL, CA, WA, NY, OR, North East [1]

    From NASHP as of Feb 10, 2022
  • ✅ – Mar 1 – Ruling party declares “victory over COVID” (State of the Union 2022)
  • ✅ – Jan 13 – SCOTUS rules conscientious objection must be allowed for any vaccine mandate
  • ✅ – May 2 – SCOTUS rules in a way enabling abortion to be a state issue
  • Republicans take house
  • Republicans take senate
    • Rep win: AZ, WI, GA, FL, NH, OH, NC, MO
    • Dem win: CO, NV, PA
  • Pelosi and McConnell both retire
  • ✅ – Feb 21 – Russia takes control of Eastern Ukraine
  • Syrian civil war ends
  • Brazil enters civil war
  • China initiates an invasion of Taiwan
  • ✅ – Apr 18 – Fighting breaks out in Northern Iraq (likely Turkish in origin)
  • Bitcoin breaks $100,000

3 thoughts on “Predictions for 2022

  1. Interesting predictions, Austin. I am curious about a couple things:
    1. Bitcoin breaks $100,000: why? I have some crypto and am generally positive about it in general but I really can’t see this. I don’t think an all-time-high would be impossible, but $100k seems arbitrary and high.
    2. Republicans take house & senate: do you think the fraud and “stolen” election that you seem to believe in will suppress republican turnouts? I really can’t see many people who think voting doesn’t matter going out and voting, especially in a midterm which people often seem to care less about than presidential elections.

    1. In terms of Bitcoin, check the quarterly returns:

      • Average quarterly returns 2016 – 2021: 37%
      • Average quarterly returns 2013 – 2021: 54%

      It seems like a very fair bet it’ll be over $100k; not including the fact companies are beginning to include bitcoin on the balance sheet and inflation continues to increase.

      In terms of republicans, the country breakdown is more like: ~33% ind, ~33% rep, ~33% dem

      I know of no person who follows politics happy with what’s going on. After Afghanistan, inflation, etc there is going to be plenty of demoralized democrats. Independents and Republicans are going to get involved in the voting process. So let’s make up some numbers, lets say

      If you break those out you’re looking at a 57% to 43% win for Republicans. That tracks with polling, showing a 10% lead for Republicans.

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